My alarm wasn’t set this morning so when I woke up there was a panic. A rush of thoughts passed through my mind before settling down and focusing on what has to be done before leaving. Then I got a message from back in Canada “so about that referendum.”
Oh yeah. A quick check on the telephone and the graphic at the top of the page said it all 52% voted to Leave. As I showered the consequences of what this means pinged in my head. No one knows how this is going to turn out in the long run. The immediate sffects will be a precipitous fall in the value of the pound. The markets haven’t opened yet but their response will be swift. I wouldn’t be surprised if they fall by 5% today. That will drag everything down accross the world.
It’s the uncertainty that money markets have a problem with. Furthermore, in the medium long term he problem will be how trade between Europe and the UK continues or doesn’t. The kind of repudiation that the voters showed toward the rest of Europe will have a negative effect. In the long term things will settle down once the two year process of negotiations to leave will conclude. The U.K. Will have access to Europe but under their terms á la Norway.
The thing is for me I’m just being selfish and wondering how this will change my moving forward. I’m remaining in the UK until December but now the way things look what I end up with will probably be significantly less than I expected in Canadian dollars. I don’t have any say in what happens here my words can’t make things different with respect to this outcome. Such is the power or lack therof in a democratic society.
A part of me however is curious as to how this will play itself out going forward. This is an unprecedented event. A major part of the European block voted to leave the association due to their dissatisfaction with it. What will this mean for the rest of Europe? Will other countries follow their lead? Will power within the EU shift and revert into the historical patterns that resulted in squabbles?
History will be written now with this event as a waypoint along the journey to what will be.